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Smart Money Moves

Here are two questions for you. What do Arizona State, Maryland, Mississippi, Mississippi State and Texas A&M have in common? And what do Kansas, Stanford and Washington have in common? The first group combined for an imperfect record of 0-20-0 vs. the line in 1998 had you followed so called 'Smart Money Moves.' The second group had a nearly perfect record of 9-0-1 vs. the line by following the Smart Money Moves in their games.

Okay, so just what are we talking about?

For years we've heard about the concept of 'smart money' moving the best football odds by a significant margin from the opening line. It has often been thought, if not presumed, that these smart money moves were signs of someone, or a group of people, having so-called 'inside information' that caused the major line move. Or in other cases the thoughts may have been that the linesmaker had made an obvious mistake in setting these lines and now the smart money was correcting that obvious flaw. In either case it has been generally believed that these smart money moves were invariable correct and that by following the smart money the players could 'clean up.'

On an almost consistent basis from year to year the inevitable results are that, as a whole, the smart money is no smarter than the rest of the general public. Often it has been profitable to go against the smart money, but in most cases, BingoCasinos.me.uk, either following smart money or a going against smart money has been a losing proposition.

What we've assembled in the following chart is a listing of how every college team currently on the betting boards in Nevada have fared in games involving so-called 'Smart Money Moves'. We show each team's record of having gone with or against such a move. The chart covers 1990 through 1998 and shows the totals for the nine seasons with the percentage of moves that turned out to be correct moves. You will be able to see easily if the public had a right or wrong perception of a team during this period on a team by team basis as well as overall. Over 2500 'Smart Money Moves' have taken place over the nine seasons.

For purposes of our review we have defined a 'Smart Money Move' as having occurred any time there was a world poker played online difference of at least 1 � points between the Opening Line and the Closing Line. The lines posted at the Stardust have been used in determining the amount of line movements. For example, if a game opened at Team A like at this online casino favored by 6 over Team B, and the line closed at Team A favored by 8 � over Team B, we considered this to be a smart money move of 2 � points. Let's say that Team A won the game by 17 points. We would consider this to have been a correct smart money move since the betting action came in on the favorite, pushing the number up from 6 to 8 � (indicating support for the favorite). We would thus post the result in the 'Right' column for both Team A and Team B (since from Team B's perspective, the public was wagering against Team B and that was a correct action to take). Had Team A won the game by only 3 points, or had they lost, then we would have posted the result in the 'Wrong' column since the money came in on the favorite and the favorite failed to cover.

The results in the following charts do not reflect a team's record in the games involving smart money. Rather, they reflect whether or not the smart money move was properly directed. As an example, Tennessee was involved in 4 games in which the Closing Line varied by at least a point and a half from the Opening Line in 1991. In all cases the line move was in the proper direction. In fact, Tennessee's record against the line in the four games was just 1-3, yet the so called 'Smart Money' correctly went against Tennessee at the right time, and on them also at the correct time. Similarly, Georgia was involved in six 'Smart Money Moves' in 1991, all of which turned out to be wrong. Georgia was 3-3 against the pointspread in those games but the 'Smart Money' moved incorrectly each time.

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